土古戦場8万位のボーダー予想。意外と伸びてない今回。 ここまで走れば大丈夫？
2021年7月24日(土曜日) 2021年7月25日 グラブル
出展：グランブルーファンタジー
7/25追記：貢献度の合計に予選～インターバルの合計を足し忘れて記事を配信してしまいました。申し訳ありません。
前回開催に比べて予選、インターバルまでの伸びはあまり見られませんでした。
しばらくガチャピン期間から間が空いたことが原因でしょうか。
コンテンツもメインストーリーの実装が、当初の予定より延期されたことも、要因としてはあるかもしれません。
さて、今回はなんとなく、8万位のボーダーがこれくらいで収まるだろうという、予想を立ててみたいと思います。
もし間違っていたら木の下に埋めてもらっても構わないよ！
（すみません。外れる可能性も十分あります…）
「8万位にはどのくらいの肉を集めておけばいいのか？」「途中危なくなったら肉集めをどこかで挟んだ方がいいのか？」「最終的に8万位のボーダーはどのくらいになるか？」という方に、大まかな指標をお伝えできればと思います。
インターバル終了時点で8万位はおおよそ1億1千万。
インターバル終了時点で8万位のボーダーである貢献度は少し高めに見積もって、1億1千万です。
これを逆算して肉の数を、少しあいまいですが割り出します。
全てEX＋討伐で、1戦あたりの肉は平均して4個ドロップするものとします。
100,000,000 / 73,000 × 4 ＝ 6027.3…
これで現在のボーダー付近の人では6,000個ほどの肉を持っていると仮定できます。
本戦の95HELL2日間で稼げる貢献度
95HELLは少し肉の消費量が少ないので、大体95HELLの期間で肉を2,500個消費すると仮定します。
（休みの期間なのでここで肉を多く消費すると、貢献度も下振れします。）
95HELLの獲得貢献度は910,000くらいで、肉の消費は1戦あたり10です。
2,500 / 10 × 910,000 ＝ 227,500,000
本戦前半の2日間で、おおよそ2億稼げると予想ができます。
ただ、この2日間は休日の方も多いため、肉集めなどのブーストもありえるでしょう。
本戦の100HELLと150HELL解禁。残り2日間の貢献度
残りの肉は3,500個です。
ざっくりとした計算になりますが、150が出るまでに消費する肉の数を1割。
150で消費する肉を9割と仮定して計算します。
100HELLの貢献度は2,680,000、150HELLの貢献度は4,100,000として計算します。
3,500 / 20 × 0.1 × 2,680,000 ＋ 3,500 / 20 × 0.9 × 4,100,000 ＝ 692,650,000
これに先ほどの95HELL2日間の合計を足して…692,650,000 ＋ 227,500,000 ＝ 920,150,000
これに先ほどの95HELL2日間と予選～インターバルまでの合計を足して…
692,650,000 ＋ 227,500,000 ＋ 110,000,000 ＝ 1,030,150,000
最終的には、8万位のボーダーはおおよそ9億2千万10億3千万ということになります。
ただ、これはあくまで高めに見積もっての数値ではあります。
予想外のことが起こる可能性もあるので最後まで要注意
世間で休日の可能性が高い2日間が、本戦と重なるということで、若干不測の事態が起こる可能性もありますが、現時点では9億5千万10億5千万を目標に走ると良いのではないでしょうか。
残り4日間。くれぐれも無理はなさらずに、頑張っていきましょう！
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